Although poker is a card game of skill, which requires strategy and a bit of luck, one of the key skills is understanding the expected value; based on average results, poker players can make more informed decisions, and this is where the expected value can help. The term pot odds is also crucial, referring to the current bet and the price a player must pay to continue the game.
What Are Pot Odds?
Pot odds (the odds on the table) is a term that represents the ratio of the current size of the pot to the price a player must pay to continue playing. These odds help players make mathematically correct decisions between calling or folding. When pot odds are more significant than the probability of winning a hand, a call can be profitable in the long run.
How Do Pot Odds Affect Decisions in Poker?
Pot odds are used to assess the profitability of continuing play in a particular hand, thus influencing players’ decisions at the table. A player compares pot odds with the probability of winning the hand to decide if it’s worth continuing. If the chances of winning are higher than the pot odds, calling may be profitable; otherwise, folding is a better option.
Factors That Affect the Decision
- Number of “outs” – cards that can improve the hand.
- Bet size – the amount to be paid to see the next card.
- Total pot size – the bigger the pot, the better the pot odds.
- Probability of winning – how likely it is to win if another card is revealed.
How to Calculate Pot Odds?
Pot odds are calculated as the ratio of the pot size to the cost of the call. For example, if the pot is 30€ and the player needs to pay 10€ to continue, the pot odds are 30:10 or 3:1.
To convert to percentage, use the formula:
(10/30 + 10) * 100 = 25%
Calling is the right move if the player believes their chance of winning is greater than 25%.
Example of Using Pot Odds in the Game
In our example, a player holds 5♠ 4♠, and the following cards are on the table: Q♣, J♣, 9♦, and 7♥. To win, he needs another spade for a flush. There are 46 cards left in the deck, 9 of which can complete his flush.
The probability of getting a flush on the river is: 9/46 = 19.6%
If the opponent bets 10€, and the pot afterward is 50€, the pot odds are:
50/10 = 5:1
Since the chances of getting the flush are 4:1, which is better than the pot odds, the player should call, as this decision will lead to profit in the long run.
Expected Value (EV) in Online Poker
One of the key mathematical concepts in poker is expected value (EV). Understanding EV enables players to make better decisions and increase their long-term profits, whether in classic or online poker games.
EV represents the average outcome a player can expect in a given situation based on all possible outcomes and their probabilities. By calculating EV correctly, poker players can decide whether to call, raise, or fold in a given hand.
How to Calculate Expected Value?
We must analyze the possible outcomes and probabilities to calculate the expected value in a poker situation. The EV formula is:
EV = (probability of winning × potential gain) – (probability of losing × potential loss)
Example Calculation of EV
Let’s imagine we are in a Texas Hold ’em online hand and considering calling an opponent’s bet:
- Probability of winning: 60% (0.6)
- Possible gain: 100€
- Probability of losing: 40% (0.4)
- Possible loss: 50€
- EV = (0.6 × 100€) – (0.4 × 50€)
- EV = 60€ – 20€
- EV = 40€
According to this calculation, calling gives an average gain of 40€ in the long run, which means a positive probability of winning.
Example of Applying Expected Value in Poker
Let’s say in a Texas Hold ’em game, a player holds 9♥ 8♥, and the following cards are on the table: J♥ 7♠ 2♣. We can see an “open-ended straight draw,” and the opponent bets 50€ into a 100€ pot. The said player needs to assess if it is profitable to call.
- There are 8 “outs” (cards that give a straight: sixes and queens).
- The probability of getting one of these cards on the turn is about 17%.
- The pot odds are 3:1 (150€ total, and the player needs to call 50€).
According to the pot odds, there must be at least a 25% chance of winning for the call to be profitable.
Since there is only a 17% chance, the EV shows this is a -EV decision, so the better move would be to fold.
The Relationship Between EV and Pot Odds
Pot odds, as discussed, are closely related to expected value. They represent the ratio between the current size of the pot and the amount a player needs to invest to continue playing.
Pot odds formula:
Pot odds = (current pot size) / (required call size)
EV is positive if the pot odds are more significant than the probability of winning, and the player should call. If the pot odds are smaller, folding would be more profitable in the long run.
Strategy Based on Pot Odds and EV
Since pot odds and expected value (EV) are two crucial concepts in making correct decisions in poker, knowing how to apply them is essential for every poker player.
When Is It Profitable to Follow Pot Odds?
Pot odds are useful in situations where a player must decide whether it is worth following a bet based on the potential reward versus the cost of the bet. To make the right decision, the chance of winning is compared to the amount needed to continue the game:
- Calling is profitable if pot odds are greater than the probability of winning.
- If pot odds are smaller than the probability of winning, calling will lead to losses in the long run.
For example, if a player has a 25% chance of completing their hand and needs to invest 20€ into an 80€ pot (4:1 ratio), it would be worth calling since the chances are better than the required 3:1.
When Should You Bet Based on EV?
Expected value (EV) determines whether a decision will be profitable in the long run.
In situations where the EV is positive, betting is recommended because this decision will bring profit to many hands. If the EV is negative, it’s better to fold or change the strategy.
For example, in a cash game, a player with a flop evaluates that they have a 35% chance of winning and could win 200€ with a 50€ bet. If we calculate the EV:
- EV = (0.35 × 200€) – (0.65 × 50€)
- EV = 70€ – 32.5€
- EV = 37.5€
Since the EV is positive, this decision will be profitable in the long run.
How to Use Pot Odds and EV to Improve Your Game?
The combination of pot odds and expected value allows for better decision-making in poker. Here are some tips on how to use them effectively:
- Follow hands with positive EV – If the expected value is positive, continuing the hand is profitable.
- Combine pot odds with implied odds – If you expect the pot to grow in later rounds, consider the potential additional profit.
- Avoid bets with negative EV – Although you may win occasionally, these decisions will result in losses in the long run.
- Use an EV calculator – Tools for calculating EV can help analyze complex poker situations.
Long-Term Profitability with Pot Odds and EV
Understanding pot odds and expected value is key to long-term profitability in poker. Players who consistently use these methods to make decisions can significantly improve their results. Regardless of the game format—cash game, tournament, limit or no-limit hold ’em—knowing EV and pot odds can make the difference between a successful and unsuccessful player. While poker involves an element of luck, players who use mathematical methods and strategy have a much better chance of success.
